Vibrant and noisy Gujarat campaign shows democracy is alive and kicking by Swapan Dasgupta

Vibrant and noisy Gujarat campaign shows democracy is alive and kicking by Swapan Dasgupta

Topic: Vibrant and noisy Gujarat campaign shows democracy is alive and kicking

Writter: Swapan Dasgupta

Publish Date: Sunday, 17 December 2017

Published on : The Times of India

Vibrant and noisy Gujarat campaign shows democracy is alive and kicking

If last Thursday’s exit polls turn out to be broadly correct and the BJP re-establishes its dominance in the home state of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, the chatterati will promptly lose interest in the Gujarat election after Monday afternoon. Naturally, it will be a very different story if — by some miracle — the BJP loses to those it dubbed the HAJ — Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh — brigade.

That the men of letters, a shorthand for those who regard the BJP as a party of semi-educated, socially gauche outlanders, will be delighted if the Gujarati voters turn their backs on their Sahab is undeniable. For the past four weeks, the editorial classes have travelled the state sniffing for discontent and revolt. Quite abruptly, the Gujarati who had been derided for being a shade too entrepreneurial, too materially minded and a bit too Hindu inclined for aesthetic comfort, was repackaged as the people that would ignite another wave of cool politics.

There were breathless descriptions of the ecstatic crowds the young Patidar Hardik Patel was drawing; and the pinko rhetoric of Jignesh Meswani was portrayed as evidence of a new politics. Yes, the election tourists were convinced that Gujarat was on the cusp of something more profound than a mere election defeat for the BJP.

Alas, the exit polls say that Gujarat is likely to be another turning point in history when history refused to turn. But then, as we know from Brexit and Donald Trump, the pollsters often misread the mood of the voters and more often get their sums wrong.

Assuming the pollsters have at least got the wind direction — if not its intensity — right, what does Gujarat tell us of the state of India’s politics?

First, it puts paid to the ridiculous theory that India is becoming a totalitarian state with an ‘undeclared Emergency’. Regardless of the outcome, the anti-BJP forces put up a noisy and spirited campaign — as did the BJP. Far from people looking over their shoulders in fear, there was an uninhibited exchange of both ideas and abuse.

Everything, from the guest list at dinner parties hosted for Oxbridge alumni, to the Prime Minister’s alleged penchant for magic mushrooms was discussed, sometimes seriously. The carnival of democracy was in full evidence, as was the contrived indignation of politics having touched new lows.

Secondly, Gujarat was the laboratory for the repackaging of Rahul Gandhi. Quite understandably, the Congress was desperate to demonstrate that the Gandhi scion had all it takes to emerge as the principal alternative to Modi. The dynasty’s minders were particularly anxious that the tag of a dilettante babalog be permanently removed from the new Congress president.
In hindsight, and regardless of the outcome, Rahul didn’t do too badly.

Going entirely by what his opponents say, Rahul campaigned energetically, stuck to a pre-determined script and even sportingly played an unfamiliar role — such as praying at temples and allowing himself to be cast as a thread-wearing Brahmin. He even showed a penchant for rhetorical sobriety. Despite a possible failure, he has impressed the anti-Modi ecosystem sufficiently to emerge as the likely face of the opposition in 2019. In the coming months, we are likely to see a stream of intellectuals, ex-bureaucrats, panicky liberals and NGO types associating themselves with the Rahul 2019 project. After Gujarat, the Congress’ leadership role in the anti-Modi combine is assured, unless the party bombs in all the other elections of 2017-18.

Finally, and again if the exit polls are true, the BJP gained from blending Modi’s charisma with meticulous election management. The Congress, by contrast, was so preoccupied with re-launching Rahul that it quite forgot the nuts and bolts. The party, it would seem, outsourced its local campaign to the HAJ warriors, particularly Hardik, and was unmindful of the counter-mobilisation an aggressive Patidar-centric campaign would trigger. Its booth management was left to disgruntled ex-bureaucrats.

The Congress attempted to blend Rahul’s modern face with strident caste politics, leftist rhetoric and me-too Hindu nationalism. It revelled in its own incoherence, trying to mean all things to all the 57 varieties of disaffection. Was this plain opportunism or a conscious bid to refashion a party that has lost its traditional moorings?
Maybe Gujarat wasn’t ripe for plucking after all. After 20 years in power, a party doesn’t win because Mani Shankar Aiyar hosts a dinner for a Pakistani friend. That would suggest voters are fools. It wins because it has broadly lived up to expectations and can connect culturally and in terms of aspirations.