Xi diplomacy: Alternating pressure with smiles by By Hiroyuki Sugiyama / Yomiuri Shimbun Senior Writer

Topic: Xi diplomacy: Alternating pressure with smiles

By: Hiroyuki Sugiyama / Yomiuri Shimbun Senior Writer

Publish Date: 20 December 2017

Published on : The Japan News

Xi diplomacy: Alternating pressure with smiles

By Hiroyuki Sugiyama / Yomiuri Shimbun Senior WriterEntering his second term of leadership after October’s National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Chinese President Xi Jinping is rolling out a “smiling” approach to international relations, meaning Xi’s methods to make China a “strong country” are not solely focused on the use of force. Depending on the situation, his approach also uses “Art of War”-style diplomatic techniques such as increasing and decreasing pressure to gain the desired results without resorting to armed conflict.

‘Generosity’

Xi has the authority to move all his military and civil officials with a word.

The state of Chinese politics after the National Congress evokes memories of China’s dynastic history. Standing at the summit and taking the helm of the country, Xi displayed his approach to foreign policy in November.

When U.S. President Donald Trump visited China, Xi invited Trump to the Forbidden City in Beijing, the residential palace of former emperors, as if he was welcoming an “emperor of the West.” Xi also defanged Trump by presenting him with a catalog of trade deals worth a total of about ¥28 trillion.

When Xi met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Vietnam, Xi flashed his smile in front of the media. As he is well known for his normally sour expression, this alone made headlines. Both leaders confirmed the development of relations between their two countries.

Xi also shook hands with South Korean President Moon Jae In, on whom he had been exerting pressure concerning the deployment of a missile defense system by the United States military in South Korea. He came to an agreement with Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong regarding cooperation in the South China Sea.

As if making a show of generosity on the part of a major world power, Xi had been showing a warm smile to the countries at odds with China in the East and South China seas and on the Korean Peninsula.

Overwhelming power

What are the calculations behind Xi’s smile?

“It’s important to build a good relationship with Trump,” said a person related to the Communist Party.

Irritating an unpredictable Trump could result in the United States putting greater emphasis on issues such as sanctions against North Korea and trade imbalances. There is also the risk that Japan and the United States, along with Australia and India, could work to further the so-called “Indo-Pacific Strategy,” a network meant to contain China. Xi had been strategically working to keep Trump happy to prevent such a situation.

It is clear Xi has determined Trump is someone he can deal with.

“The Pacific Ocean is large enough to accommodate both China and the United States.” At the summit meeting with Trump, Xi made this kind of hegemonic statement for the first time in a long while, seeming to advocate a division of influence between the major powers.

The person related to the party also expressed the view that cooperation with Japan and other countries, and a good international environment, are important for Xi to achieve vital stable growth in areas such as the Belt and Road mega economic zone initiative.

“As Xi now possesses overwhelming power, he no longer has to worry about the military’s hardline stance on international relations,” the source said.

‘Achievement’ settled

Smile diplomacy holds another benefit for China — maintaining the status quo.

After a series of summit meetings, the official Xinhua News Agency published a sizable thesis praising Xi. Among his achievements, it listed the daily patrols of the waters around the Senkaku Islands, the advancement of building artificial islands in the South China Sea and turning an arbitration court verdict (see below) into heaps of worthless paper.

The incursions by official Chinese vessels into Japan’s waters around the Senkaku Islands began in December 2008, when Hu Jintao was in power. In the same year, the Hu administration agreed with Japan to jointly develop natural gas fields in the East China Sea. After being strongly condemned by anti-Japanese hardliners such as the military, according to a person related to the diplomacy, the Hu administration cautiously sent a research vessel to the area.

As if widening the fissure by pulling it apart with both hands, the Xi administration made the incursions into Japanese waters a regular occurrence. It also established an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea.

In the South China Sea, the administration constructed seven artificial islands and rapidly made them military bases while ignoring the concerns of the international community.

This kind of power diplomacy by Xi and the current smile diplomacy are interlocked, supplementing one another. It can be described as a cycle of a powerful nation acquiring interests by pushing, easing off and securing them.

When a powerful country with overwhelming military and economic power offers a smile, the countries around it, which desire a relaxation of tensions and economic cooperation, welcome the gesture. They cease complaining for the moment about tensions around artificial islands and other issues. The opposition to the “power” is then relaxed, enabling the “achievements” of the forceful maritime advancement to be settled and established.

A successful experience

“One main feature of Xi’s diplomacy is the geographical expansion of national interests,” points out a Beijing-based expert on international affairs.

At the party’s National Congress, Xi said, “China will never seek its own development by sacrificing the interests of other countries, but China will also never give up its own legitimate interests.”

The remark emphasizes coexistence and shared prosperity. The reality of the diplomatic situation is, however, markedly different.

China, a strong and powerful nation, continues to expand its own interests by unilaterally deciding and forcing other countries to accept what are China’s legitimate interests and what are the interests of other countries.

The geographical expansion of national interests that has taken place thus far has clearly been a successful experience for Xi. Depending on the situation from now on, including the U.S.-China relationship that will be influenced by an unpredictable Trump, Xi may end up throwing his smile out the window. There is no one in China who could stop him from doing so.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 6, 2017)

Opportunity for constructive dialogue

For the international community, including Japan, Xi’s smile diplomacy presents an opportunity to advance constructive dialogue with China.

Regarding the problem of North Korean nuclear development, which has now become a critically urgent issue, it is crucial to have cooperation from China, which is North Korea’s supporter, in addition to solidarity among Japan, the United States, South Korea and other nations. It is imperative to build an environment to engage in dialogue with China to increase pressure on North Korea and force it to abandon its nuclear development program.

Cooperation in the economic field would directly lead to the expansion of mutually beneficial relationships. Nations must seek and expand common interests with China, including the Belt and Road initiative.

Dialogue is also of extreme importance in the context of China’s maritime advancement. In particular, persistent efforts to convince China to observe the rule of law are indispensable.

For example, China rejects intervention from “outside parties” such as Japan and the United States regarding the South China Sea issues. However, claiming control of the sea with no legal basis would destroy the global order. In this sense, the entire international community is a party to this issue.

Dialogue is a means of continuing to peacefully show China the will of the international community that unilateral change of the status quo is unacceptable. This could also be an effective deterrent.

■Arbitration court verdict

An arbitration court in The Hague found last year there is no legal basis for China to encircle almost all of the South China Sea with its own boundary called the “nine-dash line” and claim it as a historical right. China called the verdict heaps of worthless paper and has not accepted it. The court was convened as the result of a complaint from the Philippines